Will the market halve? What investment opportunities are there? 2020-03-11

In recent days, ,DFUND Yang Linyuan, the managing partner of bitcoin, shared a detailed answer to many investors' concerns about the investment opportunities under the halving market of bitcoin online . I think this answer is to the point , There is no high sounding Mandarin , So today I want to share with you some key points .

1. About whether the halving market will come ？

Yang Linyuan believes in halving the market , The main judgment is not because of halving itself , Nor is it because of the sharp decline and rise of the market in the short term , It is based on two fundamental macro factors ：

The first is the current macro environment . The ravages of the epidemic , The instability of the economic situation , The fusing of US stocks, etc , All this indicates that 2020 The year will be full of ups and downs , Turbulent years .

In such a macro environment , Economic crisis and inflation will be inevitable , Whether it is crisis or inflation, it will lead to the enthusiasm of liquidity, which will look for opportunities everywhere . and Bitcoin must be one of the candidates .

The second is the self-development of the industry . The main factors are ： Bitcoin began to enter the mainstream ; India's lifting of the ban on cryptocurrency has 15 Billion people have the potential to contact digital currency ; Major funds in western financial circles （ Grayscale , Fidelity ,BAKKT,CME etc. ） Start big action layout of digital currency .

The development of the industry and the entry of giants will greatly accelerate the recognition and recognition of the value of bitcoin , So as to bring more investors' pursuit .

2.  The prediction of the market before and after the halving

It is very difficult to judge the short-term behavior of the market , Therefore, it is not recommended that investors chase up and down . This is also my consistent view , I think for ordinary retail investors , If you are not familiar with the technical analysis indicators, you can ignore the short-term changes in the market , Continue to implement the fixed investment strategy .

Yang Linyuan also gave the support of bitcoin ：7200 dollar . I think investors can take it as a reference , But there is no need to 7200 Dollar as the standard to guide their short-term operations , So as not to disturb your emotions , The safe way is to keep 10000 It's OK to invest within us dollars .

3.  An estimate of the trend of the currency price before and after this halving

And for 2012 Years and 2016 The price trend of bitcoin before and after the two halving quotations in , The prediction is ： Halve this time , The rising rate of bitcoin price will probably occur after halving .

Why is that? ？ Because the rise of currency price requires the resonance of capital and emotion , And the time rate of this resonance will probably be halved . When miners and the market adapt to a reduction in supply , After the market reaches a certain balance , Then, with the bullish mood, it leads to the market .

But we can't predict the specific time point , And my analysis is based on 2012 Years and 2016 Look at the time when prices jump after halving twice a year , The time point when the currency price begins to rise sharply after this halving may be from January to March next year , Between April , The currency price began to rise all the way without looking back , Then after about half a year of brewing and development, it reached a climax .

4.  Investment suggestions for platform currency

Yang Linyuan highly recognizes the value of platform currency , For example, three big head platform coins . The fundamental reason for recognition is that the exchange platform is a field that can clearly see the profit model , Therefore, the platform currency of the exchange is valuable .

At the same time, I suggest that investors should not be too miscellaneous in the allocation of platform currencies , Just configure two or three platform coins , Too much will bring additional risks due to careless investment in unreliable platform currencies .

5.  Views on fixed investment

In this circle , Most of the gains from short-term speculation cannot be compared with the gains accumulated by the long-term trend bitcoin has experienced over the years .

However, the huge fluctuation of bitcoin is easy to make many people obsessed with the increase brought by fluctuations and keen on short-term speculation , Thus ignoring the wealth effect of long-term trends . This is precisely the difficulty and key of fixed investment , It is also an emotional barrier that fixed investment investors must overcome .

Really get a huge return through investment , It is often obtained by compounding time , Investment and reading 、 Fitness is the same , Only through the accumulation of time can we see the harvest .

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