Investment logic in market "uncertainty" 2020-03-18

We are now in an unprecedented economic crisis , A person may not have many such experiences in his life .

So what you see and get every day is worth every investor , Especially not experienced 2008 What investors paid attention to in the financial crisis in .

In the development of such a big event , Black swans may fly out every day , Every day may refresh our cognition , But understand from another angle , These are rare experiences in the process of our growth .

We usually talk so much about emotional control , Analyze so many policy operations , At this time, we will use all of them for field inspection . True knowledge comes from practice , No practice can bring us more gains than the practice in the economic crisis .

stay 3 month 16 Japanese and US stocks experienced the fourth circuit breaker in history , Finally in the 3 month 17 Japanese and US stocks have ushered in a big rebound , Dow Jones , NASDAQ and S & P both rose more than 5%.

But I saw some discussions in the investment group ： Claiming to know the US stock market 3 month 16 After a sharp fall in the ,17 There will be a violent rebound , So we rushed into the market and successfully copied the so-called bottom . But the market is volatile and cannot be accurately predicted , We simply don't know whether we can immediately rebound after every big fall , With such a mindset, when there is a big fall, we will copy the bottom , Sooner or later, it will be swallowed up by the market .

Mencius said ：“ A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall ”, Popular understanding is ： For the danger that is happening , We should leave at once instead of making a chestnut out of the fire .

The same is true in the investment market , Now all markets, whether the stock market , Precious metals or digital currencies are facing great uncertainty , In the short term, the decline cannot end here .

It's like a sick person , Illness comes like a mountain , Illness is like a twitch . The stock market is now a patient whose serious disease has just broken out , Where is it possible to recover so quickly .

stay 2008 In the financial crisis of 2007 , U.S. stocks fell for nearly half a year before bottoming , Gold and silver fell for three months before bottoming . And in this crisis , Neither U.S. stocks nor gold have fallen for less than a month so far , Besides, this crisis may be more serious than 2008 year , Therefore, there are still many difficult and dangerous roads ahead , A lot of thunder to explode .

3 month 17 Japan , The Philippines announced that it would close its domestic stock and futures exchanges , Become the first country in the world to close its exchanges because of the epidemic .

Recently, China reopened the Xiaotangshan Hospital in Beijing , Welcome the upcoming peak of inbound passengers . According to statistics, in the next period of time , The total number of passengers carried on flights to countries seeking refuge in China will exceed 100000 . Preventing the importation of cases has become an arduous task for China to control the epidemic in the next step .

But not every country in the world can control the epidemic on a large scale like China , Therefore, other countries face such a large number of inbound passengers , Will it be forced to take measures to cut off navigation and blockade ？

Will the cut-off and blockade further hit the oil price that is now getting worse ？ Will the measures to close the exchanges be followed by more countries , Make all kinds of investment products further lose liquidity and lead to a new round of panic selling ？ This series of problems are unknown ……

Without fundamental changes in the overall environment , Liquidity tension , Deflation will continue to ferment , Affect the sentiment of all investors in the market , All kinds of investment products are depressed , Digital currency cannot be left out . Even if there is little room for digital currency to fall , But it is also difficult to see stabilization in the short term .

In the face of so much uncertainty , We should not have any luck . If we guide our operations in the current environment with a speculative mentality , Opportunities may become traps , Precious chips may be regarded as worthless garbage by us .

Let me remind you again ： Watch more and move less , Stick to fixed investment .

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